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USA: First half of 2023 Reshoring and foreign direct investment (FDI) job announcements continued their record-breaking run.

1st half 2023 Reshoring – foreign direct investment (FDI) job announcements continued their record-breaking run in America.  1H 2023 announcements were in line with 2022’s record rate. We expect to see upwards of 300,000 jobs announced by year-end. EV battery and chip investments along with other essential product industries supported by Bidenomics account for the bulk of the announcements.

Several factors have come to light that substantiate the strength of U.S. reshoring and FDI trends.

By Reshoring Initiative 1H 2023 Report

Reshoring Initiative

 

 

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Staying bigger than China – by Harry Moser of Reshoring Initiative

When it comes to U.S.-China trade, the U.S. objective should be: stay bigger than China. It’s too difficult and confrontational to depend on directly limiting China’s growth. Growing the U.S. economy and manufacturing sector is a better strategy.

 

Staying Bigger than China

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Moser on Manufacturing Podcast – Designing Disruptive Solutions and Technologies

On Harry Moser’s new podcast, Lew and Harry welcome Harold Schoch, CEO of Fives Machining Systems Inc. and Matt Shockey, President of the Grinding Ultra Precision business line of the Fives Group. They discuss the skilled trades gap, supply chain challenges, the importance of reshoring, and more.

 

Moser on Manufacturing

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Why Factories Are Coming Back to the U.S – Reshoring Initiative on CNBC

Reshoring Initiatives Harry Moser’s commentary on why factories are returning to the U.S. is featured in this CNBC documentary.

 

Why Factories Are Coming Back to the U.S.

 

 

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Reshoring Fuels U.S. Factory Construction Boom

A factory construction boom fueled by reshoring is surging in the U.S. The growth is being driven by a U.S. policy push to boost domestic clean-energy manufacturing, by global supply chain risk, and by the total cost of ownership (TCO) equation. Almost 60 percent of the spending is attributed to construction for chips, EV batteries and other electronic manufacturing.

Reshoring Fuels U.S. Factory Construction Boom – Harry Moser

Published: Assembly Magazine

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“How ‘reshoring’ went from fringe idea to strategic vision” by Harry Moser

 
 

Harry Moser has been around the manufacturing business long enough to watch an idea he once pioneered — reshoring — go from a fringe concept to an almost universally accepted article of faith in the industry.

All it took was a global pandemic to make it happen…. 

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Reshoring Confirmed: Paradigm Shift from Global to Local

Harry Moser’s new article discusses the paradigm shift of manufacturing from global to local. The geographic distribution of global suppliers will fundamentally shift from being mostly global to mostly local by 2026.

Reshoring Confirmed: Paradigm Shift from Global to Local

America is Back. 

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Why Reshoring Shifted Into Hyperdrive- By Harry Moser 9-13-23

I founded the Reshoring Initiative in 2010 after witnessing an acceleration of U.S. manufacturing offshoring. As EPI News reported in January 2011, “In a year when fewer than one million domestic jobs were created, International Economist Robert Scott calculates that the growth in the U.S. trade deficit in 2010 created 1.4 million jobs overseas in 2010 and that many of those jobs were outsourced by American companies.”

Harvard Business School professors Gary Pisano and Willy C. Shih wrote in 2009 that the United States had been ceding the country’s industrial commons—“that is, the collective operational capabilities that underpin new product and process development in the U.S. industrial sector.” Being the foundation for innovation and competitiveness, they are not only “embedded in firms and scientific institutions, but also geographically rooted.” I agree.

Companies began to appreciate the benefits of local manufacturing and the reshoring trend grew steadily from 2010-2019 but developments in the 2020-2023 era shifted reshoring into hyperdrive.

Reshoring in the 2010-2019 era
From 2010 through 2019, companies decided to reshore mainly due to the irritation of many small costs and delays, including quality issues. We urged companies to more accurately assess their total cost of offshoring and shift their collective thinking from ‘offshoring is cheaper’ to ‘local reduces the total cost of ownership.’

The Reshoring Initiative developed and continues to offer The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Estimator®, a free online tool that helps companies account for all relevant factors — overhead, balance sheet, risks, corporate strategy, and other external and internal business considerations — to compare the true cost of sourcing, domestic vs. offshoring. By using this tool for sourcing or selling, most companies will find they or their customers can bring back 20 to 30% of what they are now importing.

The new normal
Economics expert Rana Foroohar commented in Yahoo! Finance on disruptions, “Supply chain interruptions are now happening every 18 months to three years. So, this is not a black swan event. This is something that for a variety of reasons is becoming the new normal.”

The pandemic caused 80% of global sectors to incur supply chain disruptions, compelling over 75% to widen the scope of their existing reshoring plans.

Shifting into hyperdrive — the 2020-2023 era
Developments in the 2020-2023 era led to reshoring operating at warp speed. A recent survey conducted by XometryForbes, and John Zogby Strategies, found that 48% of CEOs reshored all or some of their facilities (2023 Q2), a dramatic jump in three months from 35% (2023 Q1).

Over the past four decades, there has been persistent underinvestment in U.S. manufacturing. In stark contrast, manufacturing investment is now surging. New investments in U.S. manufacturing by domestic and foreign companies shifted into hyperdrive after President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill were enacted. 

Reshoring + FDI manufacturing job announcements in 2022 were at the highest rate ever recorded, with a total of 360,000+ jobs, a 53% increase from the 2021 record high. Reshoring + FDI manufacturing job announcements continued to outpace recent records, adding 101,500 jobs in 2023 Q1. If the current rate continues new job announcements will reach over 400,000 by year-end. Additionally, the cumulative number of jobs brought back since the manufacturing low in 2010 will reach two million  about 40% of the five to six million lost to offshoring.

Developing a local supplier ecosystem
DEMA Engineering Company has reshored 20% of their work from Taiwan and China to the U.S. Jonathan Deutsch, president of DEMA says, “Everything shifted suddenly and almost entirely in 2020. The biggest problem for us, as for so many, was the cost of freight, which had skyrocketed overnight. We went from a 40-foot shipping container costing $3,500 to costing over $28,000.”

Deutsch adds that between the sky-high freight costs, port strikes, labor shortages, and unreliable deliveries, “it was no longer workable and was imposing extremely challenging and unpredictable circumstances on our business. Add the price increases worldwide, geo-political challenges, tariffs — the uncertainty became too much. This is what pushed us to start to imagine a change.”

DEMA is currently developing a local supply chain network and continuing to reshore more work. “Especially for new projects, we are bringing the tools themselves that make the parts back onshore, and then we can start making the parts here, in Missouri or in Pennsylvania. For the last three big projects we’ve done, we’ve been able to onshore most of the parts,” Deutsch concludes.

Are you thinking about reshoring?

For help, contact me at 847-867-1144 or email me at harry.moser@reshorenow.org. Our main mission is to get companies to do the math correctly using our free online Total Cost of Ownership Estimator (TCO). By using TCO, companies can better evaluate sourcing, identify alternatives, and even make a case when selling against offshore competitors.

 

Why Reshoring Shifted Into Hyperdrive

 

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The Case for Returning U.S. Manufacturing from China

The Case for Returning U.S. Manufacturing from China

By Harry Moser (Reshoring Initiative) and Daniel O’Hara – Real Clear Policy 9-14-23

Harry Moser writes, over the past 40 years, demand for cheaper goods pushed American factories and sourcing offshore to China. Now that China has positioned itself as a challenger to U.S. global leadership, the relationship has changed and the geopolitical risk of manufacturing or sourcing in China has grown.

“The Case for Returning U.S. Manufacturing from China”

 

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Reshoring triggers manufacturing supercycle.

Reshoring triggers manufacturing supercycle.

 Read the full story here 
A factory construction boom is sweeping the U.S. Mega-billions are pouring into gigafactories to produce battery cells, components, materials and semiconductors. Experts believe we are in the early days of a U.S. manufacturing supercycle. 

-by Harry Moser, Reshoring Initiative. 

Real Manufacturing Construction by Type

Courtesy of the US Treasury

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China Manufacturing Dwindles as U.S. Gains: Reshoring Initiative News

Reshore Now

 

Courtesy of Reshoring Initiative | Reshoring Initiative (reshorenow.org)

August 2023 E-News: China Manufacturing Dwindles as U.S. Gains

A systemic U.S. shift away from globalization in general and China in particular.

Upcoming 1H2023 data shows U.S. reshoring and FDI job announcements are exceeding the impressive pace of 2022 with upwards of 390k jobs announced/year. In contrast to the upward trend in job announcements and construction investment in the U.S., China is seeing a parallel downward trend in economic activity, trade and openness, illustrating a systemic U.S. shift away from globalization in general and China in particular. The articles below cover the details and breadth of these developments. We continue to focus on China because reshoring from China has the optimal combination of size ($537 billion 2022 exports to the U.S.); vulnerability (25% Section 301 tariffs); and national and corporate urgency (ongoing geopolitical risks).

Developments Propel Shift Out of China

China approves sweeping expansion of anti-espionage law.

A new foreign policy law provides a clearer legal premise for China to take “countermeasures” against Western actions it deems as threatening its national and economic security, adding to the already heightened and murky risks of doing business in China. From Washington, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center is warning businesses of Beijing’s increasing power over, and control of, U.S. companies with operations in China. See also the CNBC documentary China’s Corporate Spy War.

It’s Getting Riskier to Do Business in China

The WSJ writes that Western companies may find their capital and people trapped if Beijing starts a war over Taiwan.

U.S. recommends Americans reconsider traveling to China due to arbitrary law enforcement and exit bans.

China’s Aging Population Is a Major Concern. But Its Youth May Be an Even Bigger Problem

There are not enough laborers and too many highly educated workers with no jobs. RI comment: In the U.S. about 30% of university degree holders are in jobs that do not require a degree while we have shortages of manufacturing workforce.

China’s $23 Trillion Local Debt Mess Is About to Get Worse

The massive debt implies an inevitable slowing of economic growth.

 

Where are China’s exports going?

Less and less to the U.S., the latest trade data confirms.

Xi Jinping Chokes Off Crucial Engine of China’s Economy

Very good article on the collapse in foreign direct investment (FDI).

Germany adopts its first comprehensive Strategy on China

“China’s economic strategy aims to make it less dependent on other countries while making international production chains more dependent on China.” Recognizing that asymmetry is step one. Step two is devising a plan to counter it. RI comment: Our Competitiveness Toolkit will counter China and strengthen the U.S.

Supply Chain 

Why It Seems Everything We Knew About the Global Economy Is No Longer True

RI comment: The title ought to beMuch of What We Knew About the Global Economy Was Never True. The NYT author understates how wrong her publication and most experts have been. She and most commentators refer to globalization as providing efficiency. This description is not correct and never was. Globalization reduced costs. Supplying the U.S. from Asia actually increased: energy/fuel usage; effort since productivity was lower; inventories; waste due to overstocking at retail; pollution, etc. If measured correctly, globalization often did not even reduce cost.  Companies that source based on Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) find that 20 to 30% of what they import can be sourced here with equal or greater profitability and much lower risk. The U.S. and companies have made excellent progress, increasing the number of reshoring jobs announced from 6,000/year in 2010 to a projected 390k/year in 2023.

Widespread Lean Adoption Would Make the US More Competitive

Doug Berger explains why raising individual company productivity is essential to revitalizing U.S. manufacturing.

Reduced risk, regionalization become supply chain priorities, economics expert says

Historic decarbonization deal could inflate future shipping rates

“Methanol is triple the price of very low sulfur fuel oil, said Hapag-Lloyd. Consultancy Drewry estimated that a switch to “green” methanol — methanol produced from biomass or by other means to reach carbon neutrality on a well-to-wake basis — would increase fuel costs by 350%”

Why are Companies Moving Back Home? An investigation into the drivers of location choice in the European apparel industry

RI comment: Relevant to U.S. reshoring. Europe seems to have offshored somewhat less than the U.S. and has maintained more industry capacity. Cost is a driving factor in offshoring as in the U.S.

 

3 major companies trying to move supply chains out of China, and how they’re faring in their attempts to move away from the factory of the world

Apple, TSMC and Mazda

Survey: Nearshoring to Mexico happening ‘faster than expected’

“While 88% of SMBs (small to medium businesses) plan to switch at least some of their suppliers to ones either in the U.S. or close by, 45% plan to switch all of them.”

Three-quarters of US SMEs ‘looking to nearshore suppliers’

Small and mid-sized businesses are looking to nearshore their supply chains to increase efficiency and improve sustainability, according to a survey by Capterra. RI comment: In this survey “nearshoring” includes bringing work to a near shore and to the U.S.

More Reshoring News

Hiking and fishing with other Camp Kotok guests …for those who think Harry only works!

 See our contribution to David Kotok’s discussion on the national debt ceiling debate here.

Chip Fabs Are Springing Up Nationwide. The Next Step? Boosting Printed Circuit Board Production

RI has been strongly advocating this for a year. No sense in making huge numbers of chips if we do not assemble the products that use the chips. We do not want to depend on China as our chip customer.

 

Inflation remains high in most of world as it cools in the U.S.

The annual rate of U.S. inflation — the increase in the Consumer Price Index —is at 3%  from June 2022 to June 2023. It’s the lowest inflation we’ve seen since the spring of 2021. 8.7%6.4% and 4.8% are the latest annual inflation rates for the U.K., Germany and India, respectively. The U.S. has now gotten ahead of much of the world in fighting inflation. Combined with the USD down 8% from its 2022 high, this makes us more competitive.

Senators Baldwin, Vance Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Ensure Taxpayer-Funded Inventions Are Made in America

Green Energy Is Helping Drive U.S. Industrial Real-Estate Growth

Manufacturers of electric vehicles and parts are leasing more space as e-commerce pulls back from its rapid expansion during the pandemic.

 

More governors are saying ‘no college, no problem’ to job-seekers

Government employers are looking “at the broader phenomenon of what supporters call “skills-based” hiring — essentially deciding that work experience or life experience can substitute for a diploma — for government jobs,” a trend that will further expand opportunities for vocational workers.

‘American Made’ T-Shirts Are Having Their Best Year Yet

Good article on US apparel.

World Robotics Report: “All-Time High” with Half a Million Robots Installed in One Year

Automation equipment companies are expected to be the other big winner from a North American manufacturing revival as their technologies are what make the economics of such a shift work, but growth in robot installations in the U.S. in 2021 was a fraction of the pace seen in China and also trailed Japan and the combined European market, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

Why is America running short of cancer drugs?

The problem is rooted in America’s overreliance on foreign suppliers, Tinglong Dai and Christopher S. Tang wrote, “Either we take steps to phase out our reliance on foreign manufacturers, or the FDA needs to step up its quality inspections.” Nearly 3,000 foreign factories provide most of America’s pharmaceuticals, but the FDA inspected just 6% of them in 2022. That means crises like the cancer drug shortage are always lurking. “This is a glaring failure hidden in plain sight.”  RI comment: The risk the U.S. faces along with the loss of manufacturing jobs is especially galling given that the U.S. price for pharmaceuticals is twice the price of other developed countries. Americans pay for the worldwide industry’s research and profit and then do not get the manufacturing jobs and dependable supply.

 

Reshoring Initiative Aug 2023 News

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Bicycle rider was struck by a semi North Hornell area Route 36. 

August 16, 2023

NORTH HORNELL, NY – Officials say that a bicycle rider was struck by a semi this morning in the North Hornell area on Route 36.

Waiting on details from North Hornell Fire Department.

North Hornell Fire Chief Mike Robbins says the bicyclist survived, with only minor injuries, and was taken to St. James Hospital.

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