October 28, 2025
FROM THE MANHATTAN INSTITUTE: Looking ahead to 2026 and a potential matchup between Democratic incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, 43% of voters statewide say they would back Stefanik, while 42% support Hochul—a statistical tie that nevertheless gives Stefanik a slight edge. When the Democratic candidate is switched to Hochul’s primary challenger and current Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, Stefanik’s support remains steady at 43%, but support for the Democratic candidate drops to 37%, widening the Republican’s lead to six points.
Partisan loyalty remains strong across the electorate: most voters stay aligned with their party regardless of the Democratic nominee. Roughly 70% of Hochul supporters also back Delgado, while only 3% of Democrats cross over to Stefanik. The contrast between Hochul’s precarious standing and Mamdani’s near-assured victory underscores New York’s split political identity—a deep-blue city within a state that appears increasingly competitive.
FROM BERNADETTE BRESLIN, TEAM STEFANIK SPOKESWOMAN: Kathy Hochul and single party Democrat rule have failed New York making it the most unaffordable state in the country with the highest taxes, energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills making it unaffordable to raise a family, work, and start a business. New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule. Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York.”
